The following market players/strategies bring people into the market:
- Ken Roberts
- Advanced Get
- Elliott Wave
- Fibonacci
- Jake Bernstein
- Optionetics
- Teach Me to Trade
- James Dicks
- Welles Wilder
Successful trading is more than just entry and exit. The market players above serve to bring many new people into the market, once again that is good, but accessing our specialized money management rules and systems can enhance whatever trading base you already have.
The list is notable for what it acknowledges. These approaches do bring people to markets. That is a genuine contribution. The problem is not that they exist. The problem is that entry and exit signals, however they are generated, represent only a fraction of what determines trading outcomes over time. Position sizing, risk management, and the discipline to follow a complete system through drawdowns are the factors that determine whether a trader survives and compounds. A trader with a mediocre entry system and excellent money management will outperform a trader with a brilliant entry system and no money management. The gurus on this list tend to sell entry and exit. The part that actually drives long-run performance is rarely the product being offered.
W.D. Gann Is an Example of What Not to Do
At heart, Gann’s advanced methods are essentially numerology. Numbers drawn around a “magic square” and various geometrical lines drawn on charts called “Gann Fans” which are drawn at numerologically important angles, cycles, “Gann numbers”, astrology, biblical predictions and even the Great Pyramid of Cheops are part of his wide variety of techniques. Many of these techniques originally worked with little gadgets that mechanically calculated these “important” numbers. Little wheels and puzzles, you would dial up the present market levels in it and the pointer would show the various Gann numbers as output. To the best of my knowledge this represents the first historically documented case of a professional trading guru marketing a dodgy black box trading package. The workings of these devices was obvious enough, you would turn the dial and there is the answer, however how Gann never came up with any sort of evidence as to how he found his algorithms, he seems to be the L. Ron Hubbard of futures trading, presenting his “research” as a fait accompli and never subjecting it to any form of scrutiny.
The L. Ron Hubbard comparison is precise. Both built elaborate systems with internal logic, presented them as the product of deep research, and never subjected the core claims to independent scrutiny. Both attracted devoted followers who invested significant time and money in mastering the systems. Both produced no verifiable evidence that the systems worked as claimed. The parallel is not casual. It is the accurate description of how unfalsifiable trading systems operate as belief systems rather than as testable approaches to market behavior.
The magic square and Gann Fan devices are also worth noting as historical artifacts. They represent the original black box: a mechanical device that produces numbers without any disclosed method for how those numbers were derived or tested. You dial up the current price and the pointer gives you the answer. The answer has no more connection to future price movements than a horoscope has to future events. But the physicality of the device, the act of turning a dial and reading a number, creates an impression of precision and methodology that pure numerology cannot produce. Gann understood that packaging matters. The device made the system look like engineering. It was not.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is entry and exit only part of successful trading?
Because trading outcomes over time are determined primarily by position sizing, risk management, and consistency of execution rather than by the quality of individual entry signals. A trader who risks too much on each trade will be destroyed by a losing streak regardless of how good the entries are. A trader with correct position sizing will survive and compound through losing streaks that would otherwise end a trading career.
What is wrong with Gann’s trading methods?
They are built on numerology, astrology, biblical predictions, and geometric angles that have no demonstrated predictive relationship to market prices. Gann never subjected his methods to independent testing or disclosed how his algorithms were derived. The mechanical devices he marketed produced numbers from undisclosed processes, the original black box trading package. No evidence exists that his methods produced verifiable, reproducible trading results.
Why do unfalsifiable trading systems attract followers?
Because they are infinitely interpretable and cannot be disproven. When a Gann prediction fails, the failure can always be attributed to incorrect application of the method rather than to the method itself. This protects the system from falsification while ensuring that followers always have more to learn. The pursuit feels like progress. The trading account does not reflect that progress because the approach has no genuine edge.
Trend Following Systems
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