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Holy Grails

A Perspective on Buy and Hold

Michael Covel (August 26, 2007)

In a recent interview the following question was posed to Mark Cuban:

Curtis Faith Is Not The Most Successful Turtle

Michael Covel (February 02, 2007)

Curtis Faith holds himself out as the most successful Turtle. That is not true. In fact, research shows he could be the least successful of the Turtle students hired by Richard Dennis. For example, Faith has no track record for the last 20 years (except for Acceleration Capital; see below), but he still promotes himself with this excerpt from a 1989 Wall Street Journal article:

The most successful turtle was apparently Curtis Faith. Trading records show that Mr. Faith, who was only 19 when he started the program, made about $31.5 million in profits for Mr. Dennis.
Stanley W. Angrist, The Wall Street Journal, 1989

The writer of that article Stanley Angrist did not have verification of Faith's numbers (see p. 124-125 of "The Complete TurtleTrader"). Angrist received those profit figures from Faith with just his word. For comparison, many of the other Turtles' performance numbers do exist (see p. 203-226 of "The Complete TurtleTrader"). Faith made this 2003 comment about his missing performance numbers while trading for Richard Dennis:

Unfortunately, since I didn't plan on trading afterword [sic], I never went though the trouble of reconstructing an NFA approved track record format from my trading results for Richard when the program ended so I can't give you exact results even for my trading for Richard Dennis [more].
Curtis Faith

Curtis Faith has blogged that his performance numbers can be obtained by calling Richard Dennis. If Faith can't show his performance, and has offered a detailed reason why he can't, calling Richard Dennis today is not an answer. The performance data in "The Complete TurtleTrader" was in the possession of a reputable 3rd party performance reporting service. Additionally, Faith mentions his "retirement" at 23 (he is now in his early 40's) as a reason that his Dennis track record is not available. The background documents below outline Faith's time since the Turtle program ended.

Curtis Faith Background Documents

CFTC Investigation of Curtis Faith's Firm Acceleration Capital

The following two depositions describe how Curtis Faith's firm Acceleration Capital imploded: Deposition One and Deposition Two. Curtis Faith's then partner Plyam explains how he and Faith met, what type of trading system they used, the ownership breakdown of Acceleration Capital, Faith's background, the management fees, how much they put up to start Acceleration Capital and Faith's subsequent disappearance. Toby Denniston, an employee, was stealing money from Acceleration Capital to buy trips, cars, payment for his gastric bypass surgery, gifts for his boyfriend and barbie dolls on eBay.

The Case for Commodities

Michael Covel (October 22, 2006)

Take a read of this white paper (PDF). It argues the case for why one should invest in commodities. An excerpt:

A senior investment consultant at Watson Wyatt in a recent Financial Times article, ...

Prediction Farce: Trading Too

Michael Covel (December 17, 2005)

This PDF book review outlines the case against "prediction". An excerpt:

"Prediction is one of the pleasures of life. Conversation would wither without it. 'It won't last. She'll dump him in a month.'" If ...

LTCM: Long Term Capital

Michael Covel (October 25, 2005)

Here is an original promotional document from Long Term Capital Management (10 MG). This LTCM document is only available online here at TurtleTrader.com.

LTCM still 7 years later is a fantastic case study and a monster ...

The Iraq Dinar: Good Investment?

Michael Covel (September 22, 2005)

A question received today:

Dear Sir, I have been doing some research on my own and I wanted your opinion about a subject: The Iraq Dinar as an investment. While I understand that its value may raise or fall, do you think it is a good buy and hold ...

Wrong Understanding of Trend Following Trading

Michael Covel (August 27, 2005)

A reader writes to "summarize" trend following trading:

Let me summarize the idea of Trend Following:
1. Wait for a trend to develop, either up or down.
2. Buy/sell short.
3. Hold and hope that someone is dumb enough to purchase/sell AFTER you.
4. Sell before ...

Soros Selling? Should You Care?

Michael Covel (August 16, 2005)

I am currently on a business trip that has me on the southern French coast. Yes, not a bad place to be for business in August I admit. In flipping TV channels I came across CNBC Europe for a few minutes. The announcers had just commented that Soros fund management had sold a basket of energy ...

Requiem for the Researchers?

Michael Covel (July 30, 2005)

The following recent article from the New York Times outlines the folly of stock picking and stock "analysis":

Take Tim Nguyen, 22, who joined Merrill Lynch last month as a junior analyst with a research team in San Francisco that covers mortgage and credit card stocks. It was one ...

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  • Market Wizards Paul Tudor Jones

    When I was in college I read an article on Richard Dennis, which made a big impression on me. I thought that Dennis had the greatest job in the world. (Read more)

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