Trend Following Performance: Monster Returns for Decades!

Trend following is a brutal understanding of reality. It shoots for the big returns. If you want the chance for big money, in bull and bear markets, trend following is where you want to be. But this isn’t clipping coupons. No risk, no return. No balls, no babies.

This page is proof that huge returns can be made trading as a trend follower. If you want to learn how the great trend following traders made their fortunes our firm can teach you. While no one can promise a specific return, we can teach you the philosophies and methods used to generate the big trend following money. Also, as you review performance examples keep in mind that one month in isolation of performance gives an incomplete understanding of the strategy. The big money made on average over many decades is what should be the compelling evidence for those investors who no longer trust brokerage firms and buy and hold mutual funds.

2010 Performance Comparisons

Below are indexes composed of baskets of trend followers compared to major stock indexes:

• Old Pro Index compared to Dow.
• Old Pro Index compared to NASDAQ.
• Old Pro Index compared to S&P.

More (slight different layout):

• Old Pro Index compared to U.S. indexes.
• Old Pro Index Global compared to world indexes.
• Trend Following Index compared to U.S. indexes.
• Trend Following Index Global compared to world indexes.

A TurtleTrader comparison:

• Turtle Index compared to S&P.
• Turtle Index compared to Dow.
• Turtle Index compared to NASDAQ.
• Turtle Index compared to Nikkei.
• Turtle Index compared to FTSE.
• Turtle Index compared to All Ordinaries.

Trend Following Backtest Reports

The following performance reports from trend following simulations give an idea of how to think about trend following portfolios and performance:

• Example 1
• Example 2
• Example 3
• Example 4

Below are top trend following traders compared to major stock indexes:

• Abraham Trading compared to U.S. indexes.
• Abraham Trading compared to world indexes.
• Aspect Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Aspect Capital compared to world indexes.
• Chesapeake Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Chesapeake Capital compared to world indexes.
• Clarke Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Clarke Capital compared to world indexes.
• Drury Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Drury Capital compared to world indexes.
• Dunn Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Dunn Capital compared to world indexes.
• Eclipse Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Eclipse Capital compared to world indexes.
• EMC Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• EMC Capital compared to world indexes.
• Hawksbill Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Hawksbill Capital compared to world indexes.
• Man compared to U.S. indexes.
• Man compared to world indexes.
• Millburn compared to U.S. indexes.
• Rabar compared to U.S. indexes.
• Rabar compared to world indexes.
• Transtrend compared to U.S. indexes.
• Transtrend compared to world indexes.
• Winton Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Winton Capital compared to world indexes.

Trend Following Winning Charts: Examples

• Chart 1
• Chart 2
• Chart 3
• Chart 4
• Chart 5
• Chart 6

Trend following methods can be used on stocks, ETFs, LEAPs, futures, currencies and all commodities.

Trend Following Performance Reports

The following performance reports from trend following traders show the types of returns that can be earned by sticking with systematic trend following trading systems:

• Salem Abraham (PDF)
• Dunn Capital I (PDF)
• Dunn Capital II (PDF)
• Dunn Capital III (PDF)
• Man AHL I; London (PDF)
• Man AHL II; London (PDF)
• Eclipse Capital (PDF)
• Liz Cheval; Turtle (PDF)
• Millburn (PDF)
• Superfund I (PDF)
• Bernard Drury (PDF)

Universal Chart Example

The universal chart example must be read by all.

Performance in Trend Following Book

More examples of trend following performance over the last 30 years are in the book Trend Following.

Additional Benefits Beyond Performance

• Trend following emphasizes diversification (example chart).
• Trend following has little to no correlation with long only stocks.
• Trend following's higher returns compound exponentially.
• Trend following is patient. It waits for opportunities.
• Trend following reacts to real events. No prediction.
• Trend following profits in up and down markets.
• Trend following profits across stocks, commodities, currencies, etc.
• Trend following trades exchange traded instruments. Transparency!

Disclaimers

Marylebone Holdings, LTD. (d.b.a TurtleTrader®) can not promise you will earn like returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) mentioned. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Marylebone Holdings, LTD. (d.b.a TurtleTrader®, TurtleTrader.com® & Trend Following℠) programs are for trend following trading training and educational purposes only. Testimonials included may not represent typical results. Neither unique experiences, past performances, historical tests, nor included or accessible strategies constitute recommendations or guarantee future results. For more information about commodities and futures trading, please see the Commodities Futures Trading Commissions web site at www.cftc.gov. Investors should only use risk capital that they are prepared to lose when trading forex, stocks, futures, and options because there is always the risk of substantial loss. Customers should fully examine their own personal financial situation before trading. The names and logos for TurtleTrader®, TurtleTrader.com® & Trend Following℠ are registered trademarks of Marylebone Holdings, Ltd. (d.b.a TurtleTrader®). All names and logos are ® trademarks of TurtleTrader®. All content copyright ©1996-2010 TurtleTrader®. All rights reserved.