Long streaks are, and must be, a matter of extraordinary luck imposed on great skill.
Stephen Jay Gould
Download the Adobe .pdf report.
The big point?
The central message is that across domains, long streaks typically indicate skill. And since humans have a hard time relating to all but the easiest probabilities, we often fail to see the significance of streaks.
Michael Mauboussin offers clarity on perception, probability, and skill. Download white paper above.
NOTE: If you want to learn trend following techniques and systems through advanced home study and or seminars for all traders click here. If you want to learn about trend following trading in general there is one definitive text the bestselling classic "Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets" by Michael Covel. If you want to learn about the most famous group of trained trend following traders, the Turtles and their teacher Richard Dennis, "The Complete TurtleTrader" by Michael Covel is the only complete biography (with all of the Turtle rules) available. Key introductions:
- Top Reasons to Be a Trend Follower.
- Can I become a trend follower?
- When the next crash happens will you be ready?
- The dead hand of safe bets.
- Trend Following preface.
- The Complete TurtleTrader preface.
- The Complete TurtleTrader afterword.
- On criticism.
- Meeting Mikhail Gorbachev: my journey.
- Influences.
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